Pawlenty, Perry and the Midwestern Swing

            Strange winds are brewing for the Republican race for the presidency. The standings are far from what many had initially expected out of the already watered down pool of candidates. The Ames Straw Poll (the presidential pre caucus vote held by Iowan Republicans) was held on August 13. Perhaps to no one’s surprise, Michele Bachmann won the poll, handily beating Ron Paul by 0.9%. Third in line was Tim Pawlenty, who many thought would have won or at least come in at a close second. But it was not the numbers that shocked the Pawlenty followers; it was the way he took the defeat. One day after the less than significant straw poll, Pawlenty dropped out of the race. One of the few agreeably sane contenders, Pawlenty gave up before he ever got off the ground.

            Pawlenty’s problem is that he made the mistake of thinking this was a meaningful vote. The only candidate in recent history to win the Ames Straw Poll and go on to win the White House was George W. Bush in 1999 before he ascended his throne in 2000. For example: in 2007 Mitt Romney won the Ames Straw Poll while McCain would get the nomination (and lose to Obama): in 1995 Bob Dole tied in Ames, won the nomination, but lost to Clinton: in 1987, Pat Robertson won the Poll, but George H. W. Bush won the nomination and the White House: in 1979 Bush won in Ames but Reagan got the White House. Pawlenty needed only look back at recent history to see that losing in Ames doesn’t mean shit and that his chances were the same as ever. But instead he hung his head and waved the white flag. So long, Tim Pawlenty.

            The day before Pawlenty’s presidential aspirations ended, Texas Governor Rick Perry’s began. While his name was not on the Iowa ballot, he formally declared his candidacy in South Carolina. A late addition to the contending race, Perry had adamantly denied for years that he would seek the office of the President. But like any other politician, he changed his stance and threw his hat in the ring. Perry is now considered to be in a three way race with Romney and Bachmann for the nomination, making up a kind of “Big Three” that will take on Barack Obama in 2012. Whether or not this is true remains to be seen; after all, Perry has only been a candidate for one week.

            The subtraction of Pawlenty and addition of Perry may spell some good news for Mitt Romney. He also was not on the ballot in Iowa, mainly because he feared that was a losing race. The Romney Campaign was betting that Pawlenty would win close to home, so they were concentrating more on the East Coast (Romney has been in New Hampshire seemingly all year). But with Pawlenty gone, perhaps Romney may reconsider the Midwestern states. Bachmann may seem to have the upper hand in that area, but Romney appeals to more voters than the conspiracy theory laden Bachmann (she recently said we have to fear the rise of the Soviet Union, in addition to her long list of people who are out get her). With Pawlenty gone, the middle ground in the Midwest seems up for grabs, and Romney could be the guy to grab it.