Just by looking at him, Rick Perry seems like an utterly average guy; you could almost confuse him with fellow presidential contender Mitt Romney. Whereas Michele Bachmann seems insane in both speech and appearance, Perry gives off the façade of somebody who is cool, calm and collected. But the governor from Texas is something much more diabolical than what he appears. He may look like Romney, and he may even have a comforting accent, but Perry is a very different kind of candidate. He has the wildest dreams of Bachmann but stands a better chance to be elected, simply because more people think he is sane. And therein lays the problem.
For some reason, Perry is widely considered a front runner in the narrowing Republican field. He, Romney and Bachmann round out the top three candidates, with Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman somewhere on the fringes. What really separates Perry from Romney is there view of the economy, specifically Social Security. Perry has threatened to abolish social security, and while he could never actually succeed at doing so, people are eating it up.
Perry has gone on record as saying that Social Security is a “Ponzi scheme,” which goes to show more than anything that Perry has no idea what a Ponzi scheme actually is. Perry seems to gladly neglect the fact that those who receive Social Security have already paid into it and are just collecting the money they put in. While certainly some Americans would see an immediate benefit from no longer paying Social Security (they’d no longer be paying the 6.2% income tax), the economy as a whole would suffer. If the program were to suddenly end (in the event of President Perry) the effect would become a Ponzi-like scheme; people who have paid into the program wouldn’t get anything out of it. The effect on the economy would be the same as when any major fraud collapses; poverty would surge (in this case, among retirees).
Perry may be toted as a legitimate contender right now, but his stance on Social Security will be the death of his presidential dreams. Already, other Republican candidates are ganging up on him, pulling the carpet out right from under him. Romney and Huntsman will hit him hard and often on this, much like the Democrats did in 2004 to Howard Dean and his antiwar stance. They will cast him as someone who cannot beat Barrack Obama, like Dean was cast as someone who couldn’t beat George Bush. Voters will then have to turn to the smart money, Mitt Romney (or whoever is left).
Once there’s blood in the water, the other sharks will surge. There is no honor among presidential candidates.
Whereas Perry seems to be the new poster boy for the ultra conservatives, Romney can gain serious ground by hammering him on Social Security. If he does, Perry will lose every vote of anyone who is even 10 years away from retirement. Perry will no doubt retain some of his supporters, but if the other Republicans keep at him, the fan base will deplete to the point where they will take the smart money over the easy money.
But for now, audiences love the easy money in Perry. At the GOP debate, they roared for Perry’s record of putting more inmates to death than other governor in recent history. That’s a pretty strange thing for someone who is so adamantly pro-life to do. But Perry doesn’t have to make sense to be liked. He just had to retain the far right long enough. And maybe he will, but I doubt it.
When you come out swinging at Social Security, chances are you’re going to miss.
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