Pawlenty, Perry and the Midwestern Swing

            Strange winds are brewing for the Republican race for the presidency. The standings are far from what many had initially expected out of the already watered down pool of candidates. The Ames Straw Poll (the presidential pre caucus vote held by Iowan Republicans) was held on August 13. Perhaps to no one’s surprise, Michele Bachmann won the poll, handily beating Ron Paul by 0.9%. Third in line was Tim Pawlenty, who many thought would have won or at least come in at a close second. But it was not the numbers that shocked the Pawlenty followers; it was the way he took the defeat. One day after the less than significant straw poll, Pawlenty dropped out of the race. One of the few agreeably sane contenders, Pawlenty gave up before he ever got off the ground.

            Pawlenty’s problem is that he made the mistake of thinking this was a meaningful vote. The only candidate in recent history to win the Ames Straw Poll and go on to win the White House was George W. Bush in 1999 before he ascended his throne in 2000. For example: in 2007 Mitt Romney won the Ames Straw Poll while McCain would get the nomination (and lose to Obama): in 1995 Bob Dole tied in Ames, won the nomination, but lost to Clinton: in 1987, Pat Robertson won the Poll, but George H. W. Bush won the nomination and the White House: in 1979 Bush won in Ames but Reagan got the White House. Pawlenty needed only look back at recent history to see that losing in Ames doesn’t mean shit and that his chances were the same as ever. But instead he hung his head and waved the white flag. So long, Tim Pawlenty.

            The day before Pawlenty’s presidential aspirations ended, Texas Governor Rick Perry’s began. While his name was not on the Iowa ballot, he formally declared his candidacy in South Carolina. A late addition to the contending race, Perry had adamantly denied for years that he would seek the office of the President. But like any other politician, he changed his stance and threw his hat in the ring. Perry is now considered to be in a three way race with Romney and Bachmann for the nomination, making up a kind of “Big Three” that will take on Barack Obama in 2012. Whether or not this is true remains to be seen; after all, Perry has only been a candidate for one week.

            The subtraction of Pawlenty and addition of Perry may spell some good news for Mitt Romney. He also was not on the ballot in Iowa, mainly because he feared that was a losing race. The Romney Campaign was betting that Pawlenty would win close to home, so they were concentrating more on the East Coast (Romney has been in New Hampshire seemingly all year). But with Pawlenty gone, perhaps Romney may reconsider the Midwestern states. Bachmann may seem to have the upper hand in that area, but Romney appeals to more voters than the conspiracy theory laden Bachmann (she recently said we have to fear the rise of the Soviet Union, in addition to her long list of people who are out get her). With Pawlenty gone, the middle ground in the Midwest seems up for grabs, and Romney could be the guy to grab it. 

How the Democrats Lost Big in the Battle of the Debt

            The debt ceiling deal has been reached and approved by both the House of Representatives and the Senate. It was a text book example of the something is better than nothing approach that the White House has been taking lately. Barack Obama surrendered complete control of the issue over to the far right, who somehow convinced everyone that they had bargaining power. But the power that the Tea party actually had was nothing short of a terrorist like plot: they threatened to let the government default if they didn’t have their demands met. But perhaps it is too flattering to liken the Tea Party to terrorists demanding some form of political retribution. The Tea Party is much more like a group of spoiled rich kids who use their parents’ credit cards and complain about their allowances. A deal was reached, but it was the wrong deal.

            Obama and the Democrats had to sacrifice everything they promised to get something passed by the deadline; the only silver lining for Obama is that the deal will last through 2012, so he won’t have to deal with it during the election season. But for all their power (they have the White House and the Senate) the Democrats simply rolled over on this debate and let the Republicans call the shots. The Democrats seem to have a very Stockholm-like Syndrome when it comes to fighting the Republicans and the Tea Party; rather than fight like cornered animals, they simply allow themselves to be taken hostage and victimized.

            The deal itself calls for spending cuts that will burden the disappearing middle class but adds no tax increases on the super wealthy. It was a bad deal that the Democrats shouldn’t have even considered, but because of their breathtaking lack of balls they felt they had to. The Democrats might be a weak party, but they seemed pitiful on the vote. The Republicans, for all their dirty tactics and complete disregard for everything except themselves, came out smelling like roses yet again.

            Since 2008, the Democrats have allowed the government to be hijacked twice by right winged financial thugs who promised to blow the United State to hell if they didn’t get everything they wanted. And the biggest problem is that we have no one standing up for us. We elected Obama to look those terrorists – those teenage brats – in the eye and call their bluff. But instead, he just sighed, signed the deal and gave them back their credit card.